KTR Playoff Preview Extravaganza

[fauxcreative]

Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

NOTE: Weekly Games are in parenthesis

1 - Brooklyn Nets (36)
8 - Milwaukee Bucks (26)      1 - Brooklyn (32)
                                                                        1 - Brooklyn (38)
4 - Indiana Pacers (33)      4 - Indiana (28)
5 - New York Knicks (34)
                                                                                                    1 - Brooklyn
3 - Chicago Bulls (33)
6 - Cleveland Cavaliers (28)   3 - Chicago (32)
                                                                        2 - Detroit (38)
2 - Detroit Pistons (35)      2 - Detroit (32)
7 - Atlanta Hawks (35)


> Eastern Conference RD1

The East is largely comprised of 4 win-now teams, 3 sellers, and the Hawks who still have Brazdeikis on their roster for morale support. The 1-3 seeds are likely going to take swift advantage and move on, but there's upset watch for the 4/5 matchup.

MIL vs BRK > BRK wins 8-1
NYK vs IND > IND wins 6-3
CLE vs CHI > CHI wins 7-2
ATL vs DET > DET wins 6-3

- It's not mathmatically possible for MIL to beat BRK with only 10 players
- IND and NYK both are running out 10-12 guys, but IND has enough stater-level talent to knock out NY
- CHI easily dispatches what's left of the Cavs Garage Sale
- ATL is effectively fielding a team with 8-9 players who see minutes that matter, so DET moves on
- East big dogs got lucky with the #EverythingMustGo strategy of the 5/6 seeds.

Most of these match-ups look like they'll go to script unless NYK gets hot from 3PT/PTS to steal a 5-4 upset (along with the %'s and TO). The ATL/DET match-up would've been way closer if ATL had dumped Favors, Tillman, Brazdeikis, traded Joe Harris, and used their 10M in cap to like ... get a bench. This match-up was prime-time upset territory that the slightly wounded Pistons get to dodge.

> Eastern Conference Semi-Finals

IND vs BRK > BRK wins 6-3

Determining Factors
- IND only playing with 12-players
- 4x games from FVV, Kuzma, Capela (vs. only 4x from Middleton)
- BRK quality of depth vs. IND (Taj, Doug, House)
- Only two categories projected as coin-flips

I think the Pacers playing with only 12-players leaves them with too much ground to make up against my top seeded Nets. It's tough to win a semi-finals match-up in a league this good if you're short on productive bodies. I only have a 32-28 games advantage, so this could've been a lot closer if the Pacers had 15 players. Cutting Rubio would've cleared 2.6M in cap and let them grab 3x guys at 800K, but alas ... it's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it plays out for them.

CHI vs. DET > DET wins 5-4

Determining Factors
- Health of Lonzo (CHI), Draymond (DET)
- 7 categories projected as toss-ups
- Cam Payne DA GAWD Fantasy All-Star run (4x games this week)
- Brick City FT% issues with Wood and Gafford

This is pretty much a coin flip across the board. Right now it doesn't look like Lonzo is projected to play this week, but if he does, I think the Bulls can steal PTS and flip this to a 5-4 win. Without that, the Pistons have too much Cam Payne for the Bulls to offset unless Wood turns into an 80% FT shooter for a few games.

> Eastern Conference Finals

DET vs. BRK > BRK wins 6-3

Determining Factors
- 6 categories projected as toss-ups
- 2x Dejounte Murray games
- 4x games from CJ, Jonas, Butler and Hart
- 4x games from Ingram, Bridges, Draymond
- BRK slight edge in depth quality

This one is pretty close, but BRK's bottom 7 depth guys (DFS, Covington, Barton, Grayson, Coffey, Kyle, Kuminga) get 10 games vs. 11 from DET's bottom 7 (Donte, Green, Schroder, Plumlee ... Kenrich, Lance, Josh). I think that slight edge in depth quality at the bottom of our rosters is enough to tip the scales in my favor. Plus, there's also the chance Draymond is rested on the first half of a B2B (vs. ORL), which would be a significant setback for DET given it's on an off-day w/o a replacement game.


Western Conference Playoff Preview

NOTE: Weekly Games are in parenthesis

1 - Minnesota T-Wolves (38)
8 - San Antonio Spurs (34)         1 - Minnesota (32)
                                                                               1 - Minnesota (41)
4 - Portland Trail Blazers (35)     5 - LA Lakers (30)
5 - LA Lakers (37)
                                                                                                           1 - Utah
3 - Utah Jazz (37)
6 - Houston Rockets (37)           3 - Utah (32)
                                                                               3 - Utah (35)
2 - Denver Nuggets (36)         2 - Denver (34)
7 - Memphis Grizzlies (33)


> Western Conference RD1

The West is LOADED. The West's 7/8 seeds both project to beat Detroit and Chicago in RD1 (before MEM lost J.Allen anyway), so the East teams should really count their blessings here.

SAS vs MIN > MIN wins 7-2
LAL vs POR > LAL wins 5-4
HOU vs UTA > UTA wins 5-4
MEM vs DEN > DEN wins 6-3

- MIN has too many quality starter games and Hayward is still out
- The projections like HOU, but I think UTA steals 3PT and advances
- DEN has better depth and the Allen injury killed any chance MEM had of an upset
- POR/LAL is a coin-flip for every category so ... LAL? Slightly healthier, Max Effort LeBron
- Basically this is a bunch of guesswork. This conference is 2000's Western Conference good. I'm glad I don't live here.

> Western Conference Semi-Finals

LAL vs. MIN > MIN wins 5-4

Determining Factors
- Seven Toss-up Categories
- Higher Quality depth from Minnesota
- Lakers with only 13 players
- High likelihood LeBron misses at least one game
- High likelihood Luka misses at least one game

I went with the T-Wolves here. Just too much high-quality games from their starters and better depth. Plus, I think it's really tough to win if you're only fielding 12-13 players. Lakers had 1.6M in cap they could've used to grab two more players and possibly get this one home but alas ... we've got another "Bold Strategy Cotton" situation instead.

UTA vs. DEN > UTA wins 5-4

Determining Factors
- 6-7 Toss-up Categories
- UTA 4x games from Donovan, Gobert
- DEN 4x games from Jokic
- Simmons 3x games could swing REB-STL-AST by himself
- Durant possibly missing 2nd half of a B2B

I went with the Jazz here b/c I think it's really difficult to beat their group of studs on a given week unless you're hitting on all cylinders. If the Nuggets can't get Simmons back in-time, I don't think they move on. If they do, then the year's biggest deadline deal ends up being a major windfall for the Nuggets and likely swings this match-up.

> Western Conference Finals

UTA vs. MIN > UTA wins 5-4

Determining Factors
- REMATCH ENERGY (repeat of last year's WCF)
- 6 Toss-up Categories
- Minnesota with a +6 games advantage and better depth
- Utah gets 4x games from KD, KAT, Mitchell, Gobert, Jerami

For this one, the rematch energy is set to MAXIMUM. I think Luka misses one of his four games, allowing UTA to again pull off the minor upset, as the Jazz sneak by in PTS+BLK and move on to the KTR NBA Finals. Regardless though, seriously impressive run by the T-Wolves who somehow managed to balance rebuilding with competing incredibly well all season. I just think his luck will run out here by the thinnest of margins and 4x games from UTA's stars is too much to overcome.

KTR NBA FINALS Preview

3 - Utah Jazz (38) vs. 1 - Brooklyn Nets (37) > BRK wins 5-4

Determining Factors
- 5 Toss-up Categories
- Higher quality depth from BRK
- UTA only getting 3x games from KD, KAT, Donovan (vs. 4x games for BRK from Jimmy, Dejounte, Middleton, Hart and Bogdan)
- Turnovers (both teams largely punt/ignore this category, so it could easily just end up being luck with TOs that determines the finals winner ... god I hate this category, just make Points worth 2x FFS)

Selfishly, I'm picking my Nets to win regardless of the Jinxy-Jinx Curse Voodoo such a call puts out into the universe. That call is mostly based on me liking the value of my depth for the "bottom 5-6 games" from each team this week. I think games from Barton, DFS, Coffey, Kyle and Kuminga are probably worth a little more value than Strus, Damion Lee and Toscano, etc. hopefully at least enough to tip the scales of fate my way. Regardless, close across the board here so obviously it'll come down to something frustratingly small that results in heavy objects thrown into walls. I'm looking up a new computer monitor on Amazon to be prepared.

The Saturday/Sunday swing could be especially fun here as UTA has KD-Donovan-Gobert going on Saturday, KAT-Poeltl-Jerami on Sunday, while I have Butler-Bogdan on Saturday, then Dejounte-Butler-Middleton-McCollum-Jonas on Sunday. Could be a WILD finish.

NOTE: If it's BRK/MIN, it's 37-38 in games played, with a 6-3 projection in the favor of BRK. The T-Wolves would have 2-3 safe categories, vs. one for the Nets, so I'd have my work cutout for me there to grab 3-4 of the 5 tossup categories.

[fauxcreative]

LOTR2 always gets the cool fun write-ups, so I did a thing for you guys. Have fun. I didn't want to jinx myself, but also not having me as the favorite could've invited some weird "reverse karma", so I just played it straight.

[sofigine]

Great job Faux!

[tomviolence]

Love it, even if I'm garage saler! lol

[pricker98]

Nicely done Faux!

[Laimbeer40]

Good stuff sir. Love someone else adding content to the leagues.

[fauxcreative]

Well, my Bracket is busted, though mercifully my champion survived ... going 4-4 on my predictions seems about right for that disaster filled hellscape of a RD1. Woof.

[pricker98]

You hit on 3 of the 4 final 4 teams. I would say that is well done. At least happy you were correct about that Detroit team. Ha.

[Laimbeer40]

That HOU-UTA matchup was always going to be a land mine. No way HOU should have been a 6 seed.

[fauxcreative]

Thanks pricker.

Yeah, the HOU/UTA thing had the projections favoring HOU, I just didn't want to go with all favorites. HOU was just one of those teams that, shocker, improved dramatically when someone competent started making helpful moves for a well setup team. They were very under-seeded for sure.

The HOU/MIN matchup is going to be a bloodbath. Not to overlook what should be a good/solid/tight DET/BRK semi, but yeesh. The West is scaaaary.

I'll take an 8-5 record though given all the missed games/injuries.