Houston - Miami

[Ace]

I think I have to veto (the deal has enough votes to pass if I'm alone in thinking the deal is terrible for MIA).

Why I don't like it for the Marlins:

1. They don't save much money (even cap this year, gain $1.5m in 2023, but permanently lose 8m in 2024).

2. They turn Semien's deal into a very good asset for HOU (last year is a 13.6m option now with a 2.8m buyout) and honestly the contract really isn't that bad that they need to be paying on it in '24 just because Semien had a slow start (he has a fairly decent floor with periods of excellence and has an excellent track record when it comes to health).

3. With the cap being fairly even for 22/23 we can evaluate on talent and I think they lose every single swap. Y. Diaz>Madrigal in my opinion even given the extra year for Madrigal; Wood>Morton over 2 years with chance of Morton retiring; Semien>>>Kiner-Falefa; A. Diaz + Cessa have very little value and probably negative trade value).

I will concede that a more optimistic assessment of Madrigal and a planned flip of Morton after a few good starts would move the calculus, but I still don't see what MIA are achieving here versus just moving Y. Diaz + Wood for better young talent and then dealing Semien separately (either for a moderate return with no money paid in '23 and '24 or for a very good return including a cost controlled MLB bat with the level of money being paid here).